Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Heavy Income Business (Condors)

Must have a plan when you trade!
Keep the probabilities on your side,
therefore run your business heavy on income trades.
Debit, or speculative naked options have the probabilities stacked against you and margins can kill you!
Back to your plan:
In times of peace make your adjustment plan, so when war is upon you, you will execute as planned. (period)
With Iron Condors, need to be consistent with your execution.
ex. go 50-55 days out will be able to create a spread that is 90% probability low yield, low risk mngmnt.
or ex. every 30-40 days with 70-80% probability, better yield but more risk mngmnt.
RISK MANAGEMENT RISK MANAGEMENT RISK MANAGEMENT!!!!!!!
With condors if you loose one of these you will be hurt bad!
This is a craft, you need to work at the risk management!
When price goes against you, step 1 buy in the bad side, then wait 24 hours, to let emotions settle down. Then step 2 go another standard deviation out and sell 50% more contracts there. Then you challenge the market to do it again. If it does throw up the white flag.
Will close b/f expiry b/c risk/reward is not attractive the closer to expiration you go. You must have a solid risk management to control your losses.
Look to diversify your price and volatility by having 5-7 income trades in your portfolio using calendars, condors, double diagonals.
Remeber to look at the skews of the ATM calls in front month and next month options. If there is a positive skew the market is pricing some event or move in, investigate.
5 point strikes minimum .35 credit each side
10 point stikes minimum .60 credit each side
You need to blend your trading with you job, put in automatic stops, contingency order if underlying hits your adjustment point.

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