Tuesday, December 30, 2008

interest rate bubble play


this trade will give me a time cushion if I'm still early with the 20 year T-bill correcting.

To fund my 110 JUN09 put I will short puts in the front months.

1/09/09 update
mark is approx 112, so the direction has been in my favor and with true textbook performance my short Feb 110 put has been deflated by the vega decrease and my further dated long 110 put has stayed relatively the same. This has resulted with me being up $70+ and the standard deviation for Feb does not go outside my P/L graph on this trade, Im safe up or down 15% on this one. I also have rolling capabilities/options with this one. Great trade thus far. I will get out of the trade if I up 30% on risk.
1/13/09 update
mark is app. 113, up only 1 tick from last update but the vols have come in considerably doing some damage to this P/L graph. The biggest hurt is to my JUN 110 PUT the vols upon placing trade were trading at 37 today there at 29. My short put has offset some of that damage but the P/L graph has shifted from making close to $400 on max profit to now only making only half of that.

Take Away, mitigate the vol risk when placing contrarian trades, cause if you are right the vol will most likely go against you and take away some gains.

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