May08 wfmi earnings trade (+185 +308%)

5/13/08
bot +1 may 32 put @.60 with 3 days till expiration.
5/14/08
sold for 2.45
total gain +1.85 +308%
Whole Foods Market Inc. (WFMI) reports earnings for the fiscal second quarter on Tuesday (After Market Close). As much as I loved to shop when I was in Austin, TX, I would love to be wrong if they deliver good results. It has seen its double-digit profit growth starting to erode due to costs associated with opening new stores and to buy its smaller rival Wild Oats Markets. Now that the deal has closed, the company is facing costs for cutting Wild Oats jobs and increasing the wages and training of the Wild Oats employees.
Whole Foods is also facing a slowdown in consumer spending in the U.S. A loyal customer base should help but how much? There is a positive argument as well, that it’s customers might not have been yet hit by slowdown in consumer spending as they are little middle to high class. But how much moat? Margins might be squeezed as well…
This is from one of OPN subscriber-
Whole Foods is my favorite company on the planet, but everytime I go in I can clearly see a difference in the amount of people that are there and what they are buying. I usually let loose and buy everything in sight, but I’ve even tamed myself a bit. Rising food prices, lower spending and their tiny margins–plus the way other grocers have been doing….
The company has not offered any guidance for the quarter so it may work out in their favor (sort of). The estimates for the organic food grocer from First Call are $0.30 EPS on $1.89 billion in revenues. Next quarter estimates are $0.35 EPS on $1.96 billion in revenues. Estimates for fiscal Sept-2008 are $1.28 EPS on $8.27 billion in revenues. The company expects total sales to grow 25 percent to 30 percent for the year, with comparable store sales rising 7.5 percent to 9.5 percent.
I like bearish position on WFMI. And I like Wal-Mart (WMT) for exactly the opposite reason with a bullish bias.
Disclaimer- Pls do your own due diligence before investing. My past wins doesn’t mean this will be win as well. This is not a recommendation and directional trades are speculative by nature. You may lose your investment completely.

Profitable trading, OP

MVL may08 Spec (+40% +$200)

5-2-08
MVL spec trade based on Iron Man opening and earnings
5/5/08
closed trade for total profit of $200 profit or 40% profit
entered trade on Fri. 5/2 and closd monday 5/5 (holding period about 1 working day).
IV got crushed and worked in the favor of the put credit spread and price moved up %7+ pushing both spreads into positive teritory, recognized a %80+ return on the call debit spread.

MAY bidu butterflys

4/24/08
placed 3 butterflys on Bidu for earnings lottery ticket.
placed one ATM and the other two butterflys at the expected price move up/down.

total debit: 1.75

4/25/08
earnings came out and price is at my B/E point for the ATM buterfly (mark 358)
b/c the butterfly is flat vega my position wasn't subject to the deflating of IV's.

APR Rimm earnings spec play (-max loss)

pic on right shows the IV readout for the options b/f earnings.
Goal Post trade on Rimm earnings.
immune to IV risk and playing the 10% rule for earnings. Placed at strong resistance and strong support so hopefully it will hover around these #'s close to expiration.
Looking to net a 100% return on this one.
4/3/08
day after earnings, RIMM got a kick up but only about 6% or 6-7points to 123. Bringing it closer to my 130 butterfly. The crush in IV for the shorts was about 24 points of IV per each short 100 and 130 strikes. But the beauty of it is this postion is still unaffected by the IV crush, still a very sane trade and in a good postion to profit as we approach APR expiry.
4/18/08
expiration day rally, but not enough, basically realized max loss minus .33 salvage value from the 125/130/135 CALL butterfly

FEB bidu butterfly

bot +2 PUT butterflies 240/230/220 @.73 debit (mark 257.95)
bot +1 CALL butterfly 260/270/280 @1.05 debit
butterly strangle of sorts, play on earnings.
Will be interesting flat delta and vega with + 17 theta going into earnings.
Expiration in 2 days.

2/15/08
had to close it down on expiration for a loss, finished up in the middle of my money pyramids. Realized about a 50% loss.
Theta and vega did work for me but only if price was in my 2 profit ranges...
I would try this trade again!

FEB goog butterfly (69% loss)

1/31/08
bot +1 butterfly goog FEB 570/600/630 CALL @ 5.75 (mark 562.03)

analysis:
GOOG has been beaten down and I believe the earnings should prove solid. I don't see them guiding lower as I would think that interent marketing would increase b/c it is cheaper and still effective. YHOO had weak earnings yesterday and I think GOOG could prove to be still gaining ground in the core business.
I learned a lesson with AMZN today and the crush in vols that destroyed the trade. This trade is -vega and will profit from such a crush. I did choose to go bullish on this trade so a gap down will prove devistating for this trade.

2/1/08
sold -1 butterfly for 1.80
originally bot for 5.75
total loss = 3.95 or 69% loss!

FEB amzn ratio b-spread for E. (-loss)

1/30/08
bot +1 2/3 backratio AMZN FEB 85/75 @-6.31 (mark 74.20)

1/31/08
sold -1 2/3 backratio AMZN FEB 85/75 @-11.09 (mark 74.51)
Total loss is 4.78
Worst case scenario and the total loss was WAY MORE than I expected. Very interesting and a very good reason to paper trade your curiosities. The P/L graph looked to good to be true when I put the trade on: not loosing much at all if stock stayed relatively still and making alot if stock gapped!
The big key element was the VOLS
original vols b/f earnings: average 92% for the options used
after earnings: 54%
Crush in Vols = -38%
With the +VEGA so high on this trade, the trade got killed!